Panel Draws No Optimistic End on Sunni-Shia Divide


The audience for OPC’s March 13 panel discussion on the Sunni-Shia divide left with little optimism but with sharpened insight on the ancient conflict that shapes the Middle East. Panelists made clear that an enmity originating in the 7th Century and reinforced ever since is unikely to graft an olive branch on either of the two main branches of Islam.


Three expert panelists drew on the vicious conflict in Syria as an example of how battles for power within a country can grow as neighbors lend partisan support. Iran’s Shia theocracy is giving unwavering backing to Syrian President Bashar al Assad, a member of his country’s Alawite minority that is considered an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is encouraging hundreds of young Saudis to join extremist groups fighting the Syrian regime. The Saudis are joining fighters from Libya, Tunisia and Jordan — all Sunni-majority countries.


The panel discussion was held at Club Quarters in Manhattan and was moderated by Calvin Sims, a former New York Times reporter who now works at the Ford Foundation. The OPC, the Ford Foundation and the Off-the-Record series, which is affiliated with the Foreign Policy Association, co-sponsored the event to mark the 10th anniversary of the start of the Iraq war.


"When you ask who won the U.S.-led war in Iraq, the answer is Iran," said panelist Charles Sennott, an OPC board member and executive editor of GlobalPost. It was one of several points made by panelists citing Western intervention with unintended results. Sennott said he doubted anyone involved in the war had fully thought out how the ouster of Saddam Hussein, the Sunni leader of a Shia majority country, would benefit its Shia neighbor Iran.


As a guide to religious divides and political borders, maps of the region were distributed showing the percentages of Sunni and Shia in each nation. A large map stood in the front of the room. These images came courtesy of GlobalPost, which is marking the Iraq war 10th anniversary with a special report on Islam’s religious rift called "In the Land of Cain and Abel."


Louise Roug, a panelist who is the foreign editor of Newsweek/Daily Beast and a former Mideast correspondent, told listeners to look at the relatively straight lines on that map. Those lines are relatively new. After the First World War, the West without regard to religious or ethnic groups drew new borders in the Mideast and gave power to Sunnis even within Shia-dominated countries. "We — or rather the Brits — created this cauldron," Roug said.


Mohamad Bazzi, a faculty member of New York University and a former Mideast bureau chief for Newsday, is well versed in the region’s politics and has deep understanding of its history. Bazzi went back to the year 632 to trace the Sunni-Shia split at its origins and hit highpoints in the conflict since. To Muslims, he said, the divide is part of everyday life. "It’s a long history that people are aware of and can recount to you in great detail," he said.


The inability of the West to learn from history was a repeated theme with the most frequent example being the United States’ support of the mujahedeen fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Osama Bin Laden and others saw the Soviet retreat, which marked the beginning of the end of the cold war, as an opportunity to recreate Islamic political power and topple infidel governments.


Several times the hesitancy and caution of the Obama administration to intervene in the Mideast was mentioned and contrasted with previous administrations. But even reluctant governments can be forced to react for humanitarian or other reasons. "Trust me, America always has to be involved in some way – as we saw in Benghazi," Roug said.


The evening closed with Bazzi’s answer to a question about President Barack Obama’s approach to the region. Bazzi said: "At least he knows the difference between Sunni and Shia."