Video: Breakfast Panel With Control Risks on Story Lines for 2015

The OPC and global risk consultancy Controls Risks hosted a breakfast panel this week to provide an expert view on geopolitical challenges that may emerge in 2015. We have posted a video of the entire panel on our Youtube channel, along with a couple of short clips that may be of particular interest.

During the panel Jonathan Wood, the head of the global issues desk for Control Risks, presented the organization’s RiskMap, its annual survey of business risk in the coming year.

Among the top developments for the coming year, he said risks in many areas would become increasingly local.

“It is no longer sufficient for companies to be managing their risk solely at teh national level through high-level relationships with key decision makers in the capital city. Most of them are facing much more localized threats and concerns,” like outbreaks of ebola or security risks that only strike particular areas, he said.

He said terrorism, international crime and cyber attacks would threaten fragile states.

In sub-Saharan Africa, in many countries economic growth has outpaced the progress of political reform, which could “threaten if not stymie some of Africa’s potential.”

The upcoming elections in Nigeria could provoke insecurity and instability, he added.

A divide between the outlooks of Atlantic and Pacific countries in South America would continue to grow, while Asia would see increased nationalism spurred by competition from a more aggressive China. The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan would bring uncertainty in South Asia, and recent election wins from nationalists in India could be an indicator of more tensions ahead between India and Pakistan.

The breakfast forum garnered some press coverage. Shane Ferro with Business Insider wrote that speakers at the event “seemed skeptical of the idea that Saudi Arabia was refusing to prop up oil prices because it wanted to force American producers out of the market.”

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In an article for CNN Money, Matt Egan wrote that “global investors need to closely monitor what Russian President Vladimir Putin does next.”

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“‘We have real concern that you’ve got a situation where there’s a regime that feels cornered,'” Egan quoted Control Risks’ chief macro risk analyst Michael Moran as saying during the forum.

You can watch the whole hour-long session in the window below:

In the following clip, the panel discusses whether low oil prices have influenced Saudi Arabia’s policy planning.

During a Q&A, an audience member asked the panel how low oil prices would affect Mexico.